The Life in My Years

On Sunday April 6th, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman turned to X (Twitter) and sounded the alarm after Trump’s so-called “liberation day” liberated Wall Street of $5 trillion dollars (and me of $20,000 dollars). Ackman wrote in part,
“ … by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.
If … on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.
What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large,
long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?
I don’t know of one who will do so.
When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.”

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Two days later, on April 8th, the day before economic Armageddon, I bought two pairs of Brooks running shoes at the usual $139 dollars before the price would skyrocket to – who knows. Not knowing if tariffs would adversely affect airline fares and hotel accommodations, I also made reservations for a ten day stay in New York City in May.

I wasn’t the only one making preemptive purchases. In January there was a surge in imports and in the days leading to ‘liberation day,’ there was a spike in purchases of everything from clothing to small and large appliances to electronics and gadgets to imported food products. Provisioning in anticipation of the cataclysm.

To travel or not to travel has been the ongoing discussion between my wife and I ever since Trump began antagonizing the world, scrambling the global economy, and leaning Putinesque when it comes to basic rights. Foreign lands were removed from our travel map early on, not so much because we were afraid of the reaction we would receive as Americans but because I would be worried about being hassled by customs when trying to reenter. We’re both law abiding citizens but every day basic rights and the law seem to become more blurry. Better to remain inside the borders until/unless it becomes prudent to cross the border for good. 

In the end, knowing that our window for traveling is beginning to close, we decided to go. Our future, everyone’s future, has become uncertain. That said, Cora and I consider ourselves lucky. We’re far less vulnerable than so many in this country, who are facing growing uncertainty; deportation, imprisonment, prosecution, loss of income, loss of healthcare, food insecurity, loss of shelter and loss of any number of support systems. Every day we feel anxiety, but we don’t wake up to the nagging gut wrenching fear that others face every minute of every day. This is life in Trump’s America. And so we take one more trip, not knowing when we’ll feel comfortable traveling; or if we’ll be able to travel.

I wonder about the people who have a 401K and don’t bother to look at it and just assume it’s taking care of itself and only take a peek at it every few months. I know some people who are simply too afraid to look. They’re in for a surprise.

I wonder about the emergency meetings being held in corporate boardrooms to try to strategize what they’re going to do in an economy that’s being held hostage by the capricious whims of a combative president who operates out of impulse. And then there are the small businesses and start-ups that have a slimmer margin of safety than large corporations.

The game designer
On a recent episode of the Bulwark Podcast, author and journalist Jonathan Cohn describes the plight of a particular small business, what Cohn describes as a “boutique” designer and maker of fantasy games (think Dungeons and Dragons). Cohn explains that these games are not Clue, Risk or Monopoly that one buys for twenty dollars at Target. These are sophisticated games that cost as much as $150 dollars retail and all of the game components are made in China.

“What they do,” Cohn explains, “ is they sort of put out a call early that we are thinking of making this game, and it’s got some kind of whatever fantasy narrative to it, and people kick in money for a Kickstarter and they raise the money that way. And it’s about a two year cycle from sort of conception of the idea up through when you sell the game and, you know, they price it out and people pay in. And then when the game is ready, they get it. Well, they’ve now sold a bunch of games based on their cost projections from two years ago.” Customers have bought and paid for the games in advance.

Cohn explains that this gaming company, a successful small business, bakes any possible issues such as increased shipping costs or natural disasters that might interrupt shipping lanes into the pricing. The company never anticipated a whimsical president usurping Congress’ power to institute tariffs.

As of this writing, the current tariff on China is 145%. What exactly is this game designer supposed to do except maybe take the bath that the President of the United States prepared for it and then go find something else to do?

Cohn’s example is just one of many tens of thousands of small businesses that sell to retail or industry, anything from toys to soap to specialized hardware. All caught flatfooted. And to anyone who makes the claim that these business owners should have seen it coming, the election was only five months ago and this president has a history of being irresponsibly mercurial.

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Tone deaf, insulting and out of touch
‘Well,’ someone might say, citing Cohn’s example, ‘it’s just some fantasy board game for people who foolishly spend upwards of $150 dollars for a stupid pastime.’

That particular someone would likely be a member of, or a supporter of the Trump Administration. Remarks that are brazenly tone deaf, cruel, and dismissive are common fare out of camp Trump, particularly when it comes to the economic hardship that the administration is raining down on a nation it is supposed to be serving. In the wake of the $5 trillion dollar massacre following ‘liberation day,’ MAGA indifference to the loss and to the fears of families was on full blast.

On Sunday morning, April 6th, Americans who were licking their financial wounds woke up to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s happy face saying, “And every, everything is working very smoothly. So the American people, they can, they be very take great comfort in that.” I would be happy too if my net worth was Bessent’s (at least $521 million dollars). It was condescending nonsense from a rich guy after the fifth biggest decline in the S&P 500 in 75 years.

Lutnick and the Cultural Revolution
And then there was Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (net worth 3 billion dollars) who might be third on the odious list behind Musk and Trump himself, and his double speak nonsense on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.
Lutnick in response to Brennan’s question as to whether new factory jobs would be union jobs: “No, it’s really automated jobs. It’s automated factories, automated factories. But the key is, who’s going to build the factories, who’s going to operate the factories, who’s going to make them work, great American workers. You know, we are going to replace…”
Brennan: “You said robots on other networks. You said that to FOX.”
Lutnick: … the armies of millions of people – well, remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America. It’s going to be automated. And great Americans, the tradecraft of America, is going to fix them, is going to work on them. They’re going to be mechanics. There’s going to be HVAC specialists. There’s going to be electricians. The tradecraft of America, our high school- educated Americans, the core to our workforce is going to have the greatest resurgence…of jobs in the history of America to work on these high-tech factories, which are all coming to America. That’s what’s going to build our next generation of America.”

And so in one grand word salad, Lutnick boiled America’s future down to maintenance work, which will likely be rewarded with the “generous wage” of $7.25 per hour (the federal minimum).

Lutnick’s vision smacks of an American version of Mao’s Cultural Revolution. After all, the administration and DOGE have defunded the most valuable commodity that America has been providing to the world – scientific and medical research and development. Trump and the Project 2025 authors have already launched their planned frontal assault on universities (ironic since many of them graduated from Ivy League schools), science, free thought, and dissent.

It’s not as if the Project 2025 boys haven’t started instituting their own Cultural Revolution after having sacked the board of the Kennedy Center, replacing it with a pack of rightwing, nationalistic, ignorant, narrow minded hacks, while ordering a rewriting of the nation’s history, decreeing trans people to be non-existent, making English the official language, jailing and deporting “undesirables,” and forging a course towards an official state religion.

All that’s left is to yank all the professors, and so-called intellectuals, and elites from their jobs, send them off to reeducation camps, hand them a little Red, White and Blue book of the exalted leader’s quotes (the could title it Covfefe) and then stick them in factories (to screw “little, little screws”) or corn fields to be happy in their work.

Or maybe the intellectuals will just drift off to countries that still revere science, discovery and free thought.

Better living through poverty
Right wing commentator Benny Johnson expounded on the motivational value of going broke, “Losing money costs you nothing. This is just the reality of life. You’re gonna like, were you young, young and dumb? How much money did you lose? Everyone loses money. Everyone loses money. It costs you nothing. In fact, it builds quite a bit of character. In fact, you learn a lot of lessons actually by losing money.”

“It costs you nothing?” In the brightest of character building scenarios losing money temporarily changes your life; canceled vacations, or deferred discretionary purchase. Most of the rest of the rectitude building scenarios are pretty bleak.

But as you fret over making ends meet there are the character building upsides. Think of all the things you can learn. You could learn to tune up your own car (if you can afford the tools). You can improve your neighborhood by collecting recyclables and cashing them in for spare change. You could learn how to improvise Top Ramen and make it a healthy dinner alternative.

Why the tariffs?
There’s the great mystery. You could get a variety of answers depending on who in the administration you ask. According to Trump, and this is the simple version, it’s to rebalance global trade and to reshore American manufacturing (see Lutnick’s explanation above). That’s not to mention the trade wars with Mexico and Canada as punishment for those countries not halting the flow of fentanyl (In fiscal 2024, 43 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the northern border as opposed to the troubling 21,000 pounds from Mexico).

Just kidding
Suddenly, just a week after ‘liberation day,’ Trump changed his mind. The new exorbitant tariffs were off the menu, with the exception of those levied on China which, as of this writing, ballooned to 145%.

Who blinked, Trump or the world? According to Trumpland it was the world as they declared victory, claiming that the pause was a result of 75 frightened nations calling the White House on bended knee asking for a deal. Judging by all of the praise heaped on Trump by the MAGA minions, one would have thought that Trump had won a game of three dimensional chess, while blindfolded and reading the Bible in braille and listening to Lee Greenwood’s greatest hits.

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For his next trick exhalted leader will stroll across the Potomac
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, wagged a verbal finger saying, “Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal,” referencing the president’s book that was published in 1987. “You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here.”

Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that this was Trump’s “strategy all along.”

Stephen Miller, Trump’s personal Josef Goebbels said, “Trump’s master strategy, bold statesmanship and brilliant tactical planning.”

Following the reversal, Bill Ackman, who had warned of “economic nuclear war,” tweeted, “This was brilliantly executed by @realDonaldTrump. Textbook, Art of the Deal.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune tried to sell the notion that this chaos is what Americans voted for back in November, telling reporters, “Seventy-seven million people voted for him and his agenda, and I think he deserves the opportunity to see what kind of deals he can get from some of our trading partners.” And while Trump did talk extensively about tariffs, Trump voters cared about as much about tariffs as they did saving democracy – which was basically, not at all. Trump voters wanted lower prices, something Trump promised “on day one,” a promise that the president has not addressed either by word or by deed.

Market manipulation?
After Trump announced the pause, the stock market soared and various members of the administration and the true believers dunked on the naysayers. But it’s what happened before Trump announced the pause that raised eyebrows.

Just after the markets opened at 9:30 Trump posted on Truth Social, “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!”
Four minutes later he posted, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” (DJT is the ticker symbol for Trump stock).
Four hours later, there was a surge in market options to buy and a short time later Trump
announced the pause causing the market to soar.

Bloomberg would later report that April 9th, the day of the tariff pause, was the “best day ever” for billionaires as the world’s wealthiest people hit a jackpot worth $304 billion.

By the end of the following day, the market had plunged again as did the value of the dollar. On the rise was the uncertainty index which was approaching the same high as it had during the COVID pandemic.